Worldwide average spot rates surged in the last full week of October, despite a steep drop in tonnages from India due to Diwali festival holidays, as rates from Asia Pacific origins build ahead of Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas.

According to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data, global spot prices in week 43 (20 to 26 October) jumped by an average of +4%, week on week (WoW), a similar pattern seen in week 43 last year – driven by +5% WoW spot rate rises from Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America origins. Spot rates from the Middle East & South Asia fell by -4%, WoW, as tonnages flown from that region dropped by -16%, WoW. That was chiefly due to a big WoW drop in chargeable weight from India, where tonnages slumped by around -30%, WoW, to key markets such as Europe and the US, because of Diwali holidays.

Those decreases in volumes flown from India contributed to total worldwide tonnages dipping by -2%, WoW, in week 43. Analysis by WorldACD, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, indicates that excluding the fall in traffic ex-India linked to Diwali would show a -1% WoW fall in worldwide tonnages in week 43.

Although that is hardly evidence of a strongly emerging fourth-quarter peak season, the significant rise in spot rates from three major origin regions indicates that there is some rising pressure on capacity from key markets.

Examining Asia Pacific origin markets specifically, where capacity pressures traditionally begin building at this time of year, spot rates from Asia Pacific to the US rose by a further +8%, WoW, following a +6% rise the previous week, as demand rebuilds following China’s mid-Autumn festival and holidays in Taiwan and South Korea and ahead of Thanksgiving in the US. Spot prices from China to the US surged by a further +11% to US$5.40 per kilo – their highest level this year – after rebounding +18% the previous week, and rates from South Korea to the US recorded a +21% WoW increase to $5.73 per kilo, their highest level since July. Rates from Taiwan to the US saw a further WoW rise of +5% after an increase of already +8% (WoW) the week before, and ex-Vietnam prices rose by +6%, WoW.

From Asia Pacific to Europe markets, which have been less volatile than tariff-affected Asia Pacific to US markets this year, spot rates remained comparatively stable, edging up by an average of +2%, WoW, in week 43, to $4.02 per kilo. China to Europe spot rates continued slowing building with a +2% WoW rise to $4.08 per kilo, their highest level since the beginning of June. Ex-South Korea spot prices rebounded with a further +5%, WoW, the second consecutive weekly rise following national holidays in early October, and Vietnam to Europe rates rose +5% to $3.69 per kilo, their highest level since February.