Worldwide and regional air cargo rates have remained high despite further capacity returning to Gulf markets since the latest ceasefire and peace memorandum between Iran and the US, effective since 17 June.
According to the latest weekly figures from WorldACD Market Data, average global air cargo rates edged upwards by +1% in week 25 (15 to 21 June) to US$3.24 per kilo, based on a mix of spot rates and contract rates, with average prices more or less stable from all the world’s main air cargo origin regions, on a week-on-week (WoW) basis. Compared with this time last year, average worldwide rates are currently +35% higher, led by a +50% year-on-year (YoY) increase from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) origins, and a +37% YoY rise from Asia Pacific origins.
Average worldwide spot rates also edged up by +1% in week 25 to $3.75 per kilo, taking them +47% higher than the equivalent week last year, with both MESA (+52%) and Asia Pacific (+51%) origin spot rates more than one-and-a-half times their level this time last year. Average spot rates from MESA origin regions had softened by around -5% in weeks 23 and 24 compared with their level at the end of May, but they rebounded slightly (+3%) in week 25 to $4.16 per kilo – despite a rise in air cargo capacity (+6%, WoW) from the region that outpaced WoW rises in tonnages (+2%, WoW).
Looking specifically at the MESA to Europe market, the returning capacity did relatively little to subdue the highly elevated spot rates seen since the war began around 18 weeks ago. Capacity from MESA to Europe rose by around +13% in week 25, far outpacing the +2% rise in chargeable weight, but average spot rates remained almost unchanged at $3.76 per kilo, a decline of just -1%, WoW. Capacity from the Gulf to Europe rose by around +20%, WoW, in week 25, while chargeable weight from key Gulf markets to Europe actually declined by around -25%, WoW. Despite that mismatch in the supply and demand dynamics in week 25 from the Gulf to Europe, spot rates held relatively firm, with rates from Dubai to Europe dipping by around -8%, WoW to around $3.79 per kilo – more than double (+106%) their level this time last year.
